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Long-haul tourism 2005 - Delphi study

Research Institute for Leisure and Tourism, Berne University, Engehaldenstrasse 4, CH-3012 Bern

Tourism to distant countries is booming, as many statistics confirm. And the forecasts indicate that long-haul tourism, with its advantages and disadvantages for travellers and host populations, for the economy and for nature, is set to increase still further. The positive and negative impacts on tourism des tinations in developing countries in particular are the subject of countless studies and discus sions.

The Delphi study involving just under 150 experts from Germany, Austria and Switzer land conducted between April and December 1996 provides a sophisticated picture of pos sible future development patterns in long-haul tourism. The experts believe that a broad range of qualitative aspects will gradually gain in importance, with security aspects having top priority. Many tourism-generated problems will become more and more acute in the developing countries. There will also be quite a few changes in long-haul travel behaviour which the majority of experts see as undesir able. The anticipated long-haul tourism growth rate of approximately 5 per cent per year will impact on holiday travel, both in the tourist's home country and in other European countries.

Key Words: forecasting method, long-haul tourism • travel behaviour, tour operators • market potential, tourism criticism

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